Precision

Last Updated: July 29, 2026 | By Mihail Sebastian | AI Dictionary

The share of a model's positive predictions that were actually correct – the metric to watch when a false alarm costs more than a missed case.

What is Precision?

Precision is the share of a classification model’s positive predictions that were actually correct: true positives divided by everything the model flagged as positive. A precision of 0.9 means nine out of ten alarms were real.

In machine learning the term has nothing to do with everyday carefulness or with numeric precision (the bit-width of numbers, as in quantization); it measures one thing only, how trustworthy a model’s positive calls are.

How Precision Works

Every positive prediction is either a true positive (TP), a correct flag, or a false positive (FP), a false alarm. Precision is the fraction of flags that were right:

\[ \text{Precision} = \frac{TP}{TP + FP} \]

Both counts come straight from the confusion matrix. Note what precision ignores: positives the model failed to flag at all. A model that flags a single case, correctly, scores a perfect 1.0 while missing everything else.

Precision vs Recall

Precision asks how many of the model’s flags were right; recall asks how many of the real positives the model found. The two pull against each other: flag less and precision rises while recall falls, flag more and the reverse.

PrecisionRecall
Question answeredOf everything flagged, how much was right?Of all real positives, how many were found?
Error it penalizesFalse positives (false alarms)False negatives (misses)
DenominatorAll predicted positives (TP + FP)All actual positives (TP + FN)
Matters most whenA false alarm is expensiveA miss is expensive

In cancer screening, a false negative means an untreated tumor, so recall leads. In spam filtering, a false positive buries a real message, so precision leads. When neither error is clearly cheaper, the F1 score combines the two.

Example of Precision

A hospital screens 1,000 patients; 50 actually have the disease. The model flags 80 patients: 40 truly sick (TP) and 40 healthy (FP).

Precision is 40 / 80 = 0.5. Half the flagged patients face follow-up tests for nothing, even though the model caught 40 of the 50 real cases (a recall of 0.8). Whether 0.5 is acceptable depends on the price of a false alarm, which is exactly the question precision is built to answer.

Related AI terms: Recall · F1 Score · Confusion Matrix · Model Evaluation · ROC Curve

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Mihail Sebastian — Writes about AI governance, regulation, and the technology behind them. Placeholder bio — replace with a real credential line. About

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